My earlier post today, regarding a private access information page I am developing for this web site, raised some good questions.
I've included one simple sample chart which illustrates the Top Ten horses sold at the MInnesota auction in 2010. By downloading public data from multiple sources, I illustrated these Top Ten sale horses and their selling prices with their actual racing results, and their top end speed rating.
If this small subset of data was credible, which it isn't, what conclusions might a decent analyst reach? Possibly that of the top ten MN sale horses we should expect that 10% will earn over $75,000, or that 60% will earn over $30,000, or that there's a 70% chance you will get a win picture if that's your goal, or that there's a 10% chance you will get a horse with a speed rating that should win a stakes race (90 or better) if that's your goal, or that your average earnings will be 4 times the sale price!
Amazingly, IF this small sample was credible, all of the prior comments would be factually true! Imagine how powerful, and somewhat shocking, that information would be if you knew it to be true?
Now imagine a complete longitudinal study with 100's of horses over several years, sorted by every variable imaginable, including consignor, agent and buyer. Then, and only then, truthful patterns. trends and probabilities may be available.
I hope this helps folks understand the value that information in all realms of endeavor, (not data), can offer. Now are you interested?
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.