In conversation the other day I found some old timers trying to tell a kid how to handicap by telling him, that the optimal time off between races is 14 days. I believe this 14 day figure comes from some old handicapping chronicles focused on claiming races, since I've read them all. So to help him out, I told him I would publish this. Here's a chart from a credible study I conducted of win probabilities by days off. (Plus or Minus 2%)
While the frequency of horses racing in the 15 to 22 time period is very high, I find considerable overlay value exists on the outer ends of the days off spectrum. Absolute comments like, "rarely bet a horse that's been off 2 months and never bet one thats been off 4 months or more", are costly myths!
Interestingly, the "average" time off between wins is 60 days! Surprised?
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.