Here is a link to the consolidated race videos of the top Derby contenders. For novice handicappers, the key to predicting future race results is to properly analyze past results AND PROPERLY ANALYZE THE VIDEOS ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE RESULTS. For example, several horses won big races. Seven horses in the field won their last big race. Some won by many lengths. However, the real question is, "How did they win those races and how tough was their competition?" For example, look at Frosted's last race in the Wood Memorial. 


Frosted had never run a triple digit speed rating in his life. Then suddenly in the Wood Memorial, he ran way over a triple digit number. In fact based on my speed rating methods, he had the highest such number of all the horses in the Derby! He also, as I posted before the Wood on Facebook, had likely tieback surgery to stop him from entrapping before that last race. If you analyze the Wood video, he came from dead last, ran the entire race wide thus running farther than any horse in the field, was never whipped or even shaken up with the reins. Frosted's result? He drew off comfortably to achieve the highest speed rating of all horses in the Derby field, again based on my speed rating method. 


With all of this said, the pace in the Wood was very slow which means for all those who do not know, that a horse that comes from off the pace should have had a very hard time catching the front runners. However, Frosted blew by them without any urging. Importantly, my analysis of fractional times would indicate that Frosted showed very little fade in the Wood and therefore should get the Derby distance of 1 &1/4 miles. Wow!


The only thing going against Frosted is that I do not think he faced the toughest of competition in the Wood but at 16 to 1, Frosted can not be dismissed in the Derby, which should be run at a fast pace. Several speed horses need to be near the lead, and with the favorite American Pharoah drawing the 18th post position, he will likely push the pace from the outside in front of the field because he needs to be near the lead and try to get as close as possible to the rail to save ground in the turns. This expected fast early pace could shape the race nicely for a stalker like Frosted.


In my book, this is the best Derby field I have seen in years. If the competition wasn't so strong, I'd be thinking American Pharoah just might be one of the best horses I've seen in many years. Right now I think my best bets will likely be Frosted (16/1), Mubtaahij (20/1) and Firing Line (12/1), though I think American Pharoah is the best horse and Dortmund will be in the mix, but a poor bet.


Anyway watch the videos and see who had rough trips, went wide thus running farther, and who won easy without being urged. You might find your next Derby winner by looking close. Here's the link:

http://www.horseracingnation.com/content/2015_kentucky_derby_video_replay_wall

Well our trainer Gary Scherer and all of our horses will arrive at Canterbury Park this weekend. A few, like BJ’s Angel are already here.

Our two year olds, after being prepped down south this year in Louisiana at Cross Creek Farm, have been in Chicago at Hawthorne for a while now. They are track tested and have been running down the lane under Gary’s watchful eye. We haven’t seen our two year olds in almost 6 months and Gary says we’re going to like what we see when we see them this year. Victory Ice, privately purchased from breeders Rick and Joyce Osborne, out of Halfkarat by Brave Victory, is a particularly athletic 2 year old filly according to Gary.

While I really look forward to seeing the best Derby field in many years this Saturday, I am even more excited to wander around the Canterbury backside and see our 7 horse stable next week. Should be a great year and I hope to see many of you at the track.

What do I mean by fractional times when picking a Derby winner? While things like dosage and average winning distance of a horse’s sire & dam’s sire help handicappers understand if a horse can get the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles, I like to study the actual finishing speed of horses in longer races. In other words, all horses run races faster at the beginning than they do at the end. It’s fiction to think they speed up down the stretch. The truth is that certain horses simply have more stamina and do not fade as much as others down the stretch. So I measure the fade by studying fractional times.

I can do this because the leading horse fractional times are published for every race, as are the lengths a horse trails the leader by at various points. That combination of data allows me to track an individual horse’s speed at different points in the race. In general, every length is equal to about 1/5th of a second. For example, I know that American Pharaoh ran his last furlong in the Arkansas Derby in about 12.6 seconds.  I also know that he did not show much of a fade in that 1 1/8th mile race down the stretch, and he was not whipped or even shaken up (shaking of the reins) down the stretch!

Both Frosted and surprisingly Firing Line, who won the Sunland Derby by 14 lengths in his last out after just losing to Dortmund by a head in both of his prior two races, also showed only a slight fade at the 1 & 1/8th mile distance. But here’s the most interesting horse for me, Mubtaahij.

Because he has been racing overseas I can’t get at the fractional times in a chart but I analyzed the video of his easy win at the 1 & 3/16th mile distance in the U.A.E. $2,000,000 Derby. The video had a running clock, and they mark the last 300 meters of the race. So after a series of calculations and conversions, I found he ran his last furlong in 12.5 seconds and amazingly showed NO FADE but in fact a slight 0.5% increase in speed down the stretch. I checked my calculations several times and they are far from official but if I am close to accurate, wow! He was also never ever whipped down the stretch, though he was “shaken up”.

I can only explain his stretch speed by him having a fascinating distance pedigree with the average winning distance of both his sire and his dam’s sire over 8.6 furlongs! If you what to see his surge in that race, here’s a link to the video.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12575830

Different tracks affect times differently but in the aggregate, since I am measuring fade, the track variation is less significant.

I also always wait for the post position draw to make my Derby picks but as of now I see American Pharaoh, Frosted and Firing Line as interesting but Mubtaahij is the most interesting of all.

Plus, here’s all the DERBY news that’s fit to print.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/kentucky-derby-news-notes-monday-april-27/

Folks sent me a couple Facebook messages about my last post related to understanding pedigree distance breeding in Triple Crown races, I constructed this comparison that I thought you'd find interesting.

Dosage is a calculated factor which considers the distance sires contained within a horse's pedigree were able to win. There's is a ton of information about dosage online if you are interested but, the lower the number the better a horse can typically run long.

Distance breeding has an effect on the Derby to a measurable degree considering 3 year olds running the 1 1/4 mile distance, but it has a huge effect on the Belmont at the 1 1/2 mile distance. 

While I believe a study of Fractional Times and Average Winning Distance of sires is more effective in predicting distance capability, there is a proven correlation between dosage and distance. Of course, as with all things, there will be anomalies, just like you will occasionally throw snake eyes on two dice. (A known 1 in 36 event.) Though an anomaly may emerge, only knucklehead gamblers bet that it will. 

Hope this helps and if you have more questions let me know.

New angles, interviews with "real" experts, rankings of racetracks and more is now available to players in the April 2015 Horse Players Monthly. If you want to learn to be successful as a handicapper, this is a monthly must read, and you can also see where your favorite racetracks (Canterbury, Tampa, Hawthorne, Prarie Meadows, etc.) actually rate based upon payout, takeout, and other key factors. Find the link to this great publication on our handicapping page.

MN Racing starts in a month! Also since I was asked, here's a link to a website page which reflects a summary of the changes I would like to see implemented in racing. If you want the full article that was published in the Thoroughbred Times a few years back, message me. 

Link to Eight Innovations Summary.

I've included an older article on post position importance, "Is Post Position Important?" on the Handicapping page, and some "2014 rankings of MN trainers and Jockeys". You can now follow both links to our website. You might find the Canterbury 7 1/2 furlong turf race data particularly interesting.

Yes, I had Frosted and a few of you who follow our Facebook page noticed that on Saturday. I liked the horse before, and much more, after the tie back surgery that alleviated his breathing problem. He became entrapped in his previous race so it was no surprise he ran the entrire Wood Memorial wide and still pulled away. For me, he may be the best bet in the Derby. FYI, you can like our page on Facebook for updates and find the page at https://www.facebook.com/pages/Astar-Thoroughbreds/125247097543825?ref=bookmarks 

Friends, a few of you have asked where I get my information, and now you will know. It's funny because I used to go to various websites to find out what was happening but now I go to my own "News" page on my Astarthor.com website. By building RSS feeds, I have four different main sources of daily information where I can click on the headline I'm interested in, and easily find out what's happening every morning.

Today a few of the headlines I was interested in included Dortmund as the ESPN power ranking leader for the Derby, Pimilico investing in some attractive gaming and racing options, Peter Lurie going to Hoosier Park and a Corinthian Colt was the top seller at Fasig Tipton in Texas where the gross sales number dropped almost 40% from last year. ........ and you can get it there also. Hit the link or go to the "News" page if you like.