Here’s a quick update regarding questions.
We have 2 runners this weekend. Supremo Struckgold runs tomorrow night and should be competitive and a near favorite. Rapid Business, who didn’t run well or handle the route in his last, runs right back Sunday in a short sprint. Hoping he does well. Since he’s a beautiful black bay (that’s what I call him) he just may come home to the farm and move on to a second career if he doesn't run well. We always place our horses after they are done racing or they get to live with me in retirement on some pretty nice pastures, and in a heated barn. In other words, spoiled.
BJ’s Angel, who’s won the last two and 3 of the last 5, will try for her second stakes win in the Princess Elaine Stakes on July 3rd unless something unexpected pops up between now and then.
For those who have asked how our stable has been performing, this year our stables are doing well again this year. We are performing above the estimated breakeven training cost EPS objectives. For the year, we are at $4,519 per start and at Canterbury we are at $4,763 per start so far this season. I will update the “Who’s Hot” Minnesota owner, trainer and jockey rankings by Earnings per Start in the near future.
For friends and family, Saturday night our Astar Thoroughbred BJ’s Angel runs her first race of the year in the 9th. It’s her first ever race on the turf. Tough race and she’s running in open company. Our Astar Lindquist Rapid Business also runs in the 10th race in a strangely carded Maiden MN Bred only $30,000 claiming event.
These two, plus Jumpin Jimeneys on Friday and Sugar Business in the 8th Saturday are all Stormy Business sired and Astar Thoroughbreds bred horses. Good luck to all.
Tomorrow our Supremo Struckgold runs his first Canterbury race. Though it's his first race he has a fair chance. All the horses in the race have already run except him. I also really like Mount Eagle to win in the next race if I get any where near the 3 to 1 morning line odds.
Lastly, always be careful looking at times in workouts. I had a couple handicapping friends send me messages about who they liked tomorrow evening. Their criteria involved bullet works and times.
Workout values are generally handicapping myths with little more than random correlation. Unless you have first hand workout knowledge, you have no idea whether horses worked in company (faster as a result), were worked very hard by the rider (faster as a result) or whether the clockers even got the times or horses recorded correctly. Over the years I can't even begin to tell you the jokes shared on the backside of tracks related to reported times. That's why some of us always track workout times ourselves. The workout myth may just affect your handicapping tomorrow. (OK, I know it will, so be careful my handicapping friends ..... or message me if you are swinging big as a result of a workout.)
Here's a link to an excellent and honest article about the importance of the Triple Crown to horse racing. I wish I could pick Chrome and will root for him to win, but my handicapping nature brings back Smarty Jones can't lose memories and the distance breeding of Birdstone as he ran him down. Tonalist, Commanding Curve, Ride On Curlin, and Wicked Strong all have the breeding and form to get there me thinks. While distance breeding may be slightly perceptable at the Derby and Preakness distances, the famous Belmont stretch and 1 & 1/2 mile distance for 3 year olds often dictates the order of finish. Nevertheless, go get em Chrome!
Link to the Rachel Blount Article
So here's my handicapping view. I don’t play or handicap quarter horse races. I also don’t handicap a race I have a horse in, but play our horses. Consequently, if the track is fast my plays will be limited to our Astar/Lindquist horse in the 3rd, Mount Eagle in the 5th based on the final odds and exotic keys, and lastly I’m a little fascinated by a horse that sold as a $260,000 yearling making a his debut as a 4 year old maiden at Canterbury Park called Hold The Wire, in the 5th. The horse never had a published work until last April 16th, and had a bullet work two back. There has to be a few strange stories there ...... but I like strange stories. Good luck. (And yes Terri, that's 25 year old buddy, and a Vikings Bret Farve Jersey ..... I never wear decent clothes when working in the barn.)
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.