Derby Winner and Why?

To answer messages after the American Pharoah win, he was easily the best because he had to expend great energy to angle in early from the 18th post, and then ran the race very wide throughout. This was smart since they knew he was much the best horse and Espinoza wanted to keep him in the clear for a full unimpeded run. This also means that Pharoah traveled near 85 feet farther than Dortmund to get to the finish line, and 35 feet farther than Firing Line. This is not an opinion but a simple geometric fact based on the paths I studied related to the race. 

And yes, he will likely win the Preakness if healthy and have a much shorter path to the finish line. We'll talk about his ability to get the 1 & 1/2 mile Belmont later. Again, fractional times and sire's AWD's are more valuable than a dosage number in determining this though there is a proven dosage correlation.

Lastly, here's an excerpt from an article on The Handicapping Page on this website if you want to understand more. 

"So here’s another lesson, if you do not understand random variation and probabilities, stupid myths and emotions will always infect your intelligence. Yes I meant infect, not affect. People have been infected by immeasurable BS in this world. Is it any wonder that some people will believe almost anything? Many accepted beliefs are nothing more than unproven myths. Many people now deploy statistical sciences, related to variation and normalized studies, to dispel myths. That’s exactly what applies to racing, and the lone speed myth previously described. 


Assuming a few of you understand common racing beliefs, do horses really bounce or is a bounce just a component of common variation? Are washed out horses in the pre-race paddock bad bets, or are they always washed out anyway? Is nicking a key to good breeding, or is it less important than a mare’s racing class or foal birth order? Are fractional times more important to determining distance capability than dosage? Do speed ratings really tell you how hard a horse had to run to achieve that speed rating? Do some handicappers throw out hundreds of pieces of irrelevant information that their gambling competitors consider critical?"