With questions coming in regarding the upcoming yearling auction in Minnesota I thought I would share some data that may help lead some of the new contemporary and scientific buyers in the right direction. Sure you can find all sorts of experts and literature on pedigrees, nicking, dosage, conformation, breeding and racing theory. Unfortunately, I have found that only a portion of what the experts believe is true, and often even less is practically valuable.
In the non-academic world only "results" matter and the data results have to be analyzed and turned into information. The desired result when buying a yearling is simple. Win and earn purses. So here's another something that you not find anywhere else.
Following is a minor excerpt from my data base of historical Minnesota auction files. It illustrates some of the publicly available data from the 2014 Minnesota yearling auction. I can easily create data sets with meaning so until now I may have been the only person who knew that of the 43 yearlings sold in the 2014 Minnesota auction, owners of those yearlings had already garnered 17 wins, 2 stakes wins, over $456,000 in purse earnings, and 9 have already earned over $20,000! These are pretty nice numbers considering these sale horses are only in the middle of their 3 year old racing season, and have many years left to race!
Now, this is only basic data but it answers simple questions like, can you get a good horse, can you get a stakes winner. etc., etc,. Once I scientifically analyze the full set of data, utilizing many years of auction results, pedigree data, nicking data, buyer data, HIP order and breeder data, I can find out how price correlates to results and create an auction strategy by answering some impactful questions like:
1. Does HIP order impact bidding behavior?
2. Which conformation experts (Often the Buyer or the Buyer's Trainer) are most effective?
3. Is an over-bidding emotional dynamic?
4. Is there a price point sweet spot?
5. Does all that nicking stuff really correlate to better results?
6. Can pedigree data be statistically correlated to results?
7. Do dams racing records correlate to better results?
8. Do dams produce records correlate to better results?
9. Are dams more important than sires?
10. Do some breeders produce better results, related to price, than others?
Of course the list goes on and on but understanding data variation, and then creating information, allows you to develop your own strategy for success. I hope you enjoy the data and this helps some of you start to think about your own strategy in the future.
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.