A couple folks asked about an old blog post regarding mare racing capability as a key indicator of future success when selecting yearlings out of a sale. My data indicate that buyers and their bidding behaviors demonstrate extreme fascination with sires, even though sires only represent 50% of what any foal will eventually become. That's why so many poorly bred horses from mediocre mares exist in many sales.
You see sire information is prevalent because they sire so very many foals every year, while typical mares will have only 10 or so in their lifetime. That's why data sources related to nicking, for example, are entirely related to sire lines. Confused buyers and even breeders then foolishly think that a decent sire line combination 2, 3 or even 4 generations ago has more bearing on potential foal success than the dam herself. My many years of correlative data analysis say otherwise!
Anyway the original blog post link follows, but for those who asked how our Oaks Stakes winner last Saturday (Blazing Angel) stacked up in this regard when we purchased her for $12,000 in the 2014 MTA sale, the answer is simple. Her mare (Firecard) was little known in Minnesota but exceptional on the track, running a top end 109 Equibase speed rating and winning $289K during her career as a stakes winner. Also, her sire (Angliana) was little known in Minnesota and ran a 114 top end SR.
With this said, I'm always happy to help owners who are legitimately interested in the truth that data provides, rather than the myths so many supposed experts perpetuate without proof. You can see in the linked blog post a small but consistent local sample of how important a differentiated mare is when determining future foal success probabilities. I hope this helps.
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.