Tonight our Samstar runs again in the 9th race, after finishing 4th in his last race. This time, he gets to go two turns for the first time in a mile MSW. Last race, he ran as expected and I picked the winner, Bold Entry. (I always TRY to gamble with my head, not my heart.) This time, I’m a bit more excited about seeing Samstar go the two turns based on the performance of personally bred Stormy Business horses with similar lines.
Though AWD’s are no indicator of him possibly being better at two turns, fractional times may indicate his two turn proclivity. Based on replays and estimates, I had him finishing his last half furlong in the previous 5 ½ furlong race, in 6.6 seconds. Macho Storm finished his in 6.6 seconds also while Tahkodha Royale did a 6.0. Steviefromstanley and Ghazablanca also did 6.8’s. FYI, Hummin Through has the best long distance breeding.
With only one race each to look at and the age of the horses, anything is possible in their 2nd out. Biehler is the best trainer at 2nd outs with 18% wins (watch out for Lockedupforever), but Tony (Samstar) is the 2nd best trainer with a 10% 2nd out win percentage. Based on the pace of the previous races, and Samstar’s early pace being slower than the others, Macho Storm is my pick but it’s anybody’s race.
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.