Yes, I'm taking Pharoah again in the Belmont. I've made some good money betting against the two first leg Triple Crown winners over the years with distance pedigree horses like Tonalist last year but, I think Pharoah is an anomaly based on the lack of any detectable fade in earlier races.
He is another overlay at anything better than 2 to 5. (He was over a 100% overlay at the 9 to 10 final odds in the Preakness.) Of course I realize most people don't understand how investments work but making as little as 25%, much less 100%, on your money in less than 2 minutes is a good thing. Losing on long shots IS NOT a value play, though experts who have no idea how to establish probabilities and relate those to the final odds think they are.
I think Pletcher with multiple runners could send horses to try and exhaust Pharoah, letting Frosted get there late, or Mubtaahij with a monster distance pedigree could upset. Nevertheless, Pharoah is special me thinks.
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.