Tonight BJ’s Angel goes in The Princess Elaine Stakes. Simply put, 9 horses could take this and for most of them, the “shape” of the race will be the key. In our case, I make BJ a 14% win probability. For students that means 6.14 to 1 is breakeven (probability of losing divided by the probability of winning or 86% divided by 14%), but with margin you need 7 to 1 to bet. Morning Line has her at 8 to 1.
Last race was her first out, a tune up for her. She ran a 68 Bris compared to the 85’s she was running earlier. However, it was also her first after chips were removed from her ankle so we hope she returns to form. If she does, Franco, who is the top turf jock in the country statistically, needs to save ground early, let her relax and find a straight line home to win. We also need some early pace since her last race crawled in 25.6 for the first quarter, though she only lost by a little less than 5. Besides Blue’s Edge, I’m thinking Sky and Sea and Dear Fay will go inside plus one or two others. I’m hoping at least.
Talking Bout has Denny, who will always ride for Ulwelling’s if Gary has two in. She and It’s Tamareno are likely the top choices but again……spots, race position, pace and the shape will dictate this winner I’m afraid. It’s that close…….but I hope to hear Paul Allen say “Here comes BJ’s Angel with Franco”! Haha and good luck this weekend.
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.