Here is a link to the consolidated race videos of the top Derby contenders. For novice handicappers, the key to predicting future race results is to properly analyze past results AND PROPERLY ANALYZE THE VIDEOS ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE RESULTS. For example, several horses won big races. Seven horses in the field won their last big race. Some won by many lengths. However, the real question is, "How did they win those races and how tough was their competition?" For example, look at Frosted's last race in the Wood Memorial.
Frosted had never run a triple digit speed rating in his life. Then suddenly in the Wood Memorial, he ran way over a triple digit number. In fact based on my speed rating methods, he had the highest such number of all the horses in the Derby! He also, as I posted before the Wood on Facebook, had likely tieback surgery to stop him from entrapping before that last race. If you analyze the Wood video, he came from dead last, ran the entire race wide thus running farther than any horse in the field, was never whipped or even shaken up with the reins. Frosted's result? He drew off comfortably to achieve the highest speed rating of all horses in the Derby field, again based on my speed rating method.
With all of this said, the pace in the Wood was very slow which means for all those who do not know, that a horse that comes from off the pace should have had a very hard time catching the front runners. However, Frosted blew by them without any urging. Importantly, my analysis of fractional times would indicate that Frosted showed very little fade in the Wood and therefore should get the Derby distance of 1 &1/4 miles. Wow!
The only thing going against Frosted is that I do not think he faced the toughest of competition in the Wood but at 16 to 1, Frosted can not be dismissed in the Derby, which should be run at a fast pace. Several speed horses need to be near the lead, and with the favorite American Pharoah drawing the 18th post position, he will likely push the pace from the outside in front of the field because he needs to be near the lead and try to get as close as possible to the rail to save ground in the turns. This expected fast early pace could shape the race nicely for a stalker like Frosted.
In my book, this is the best Derby field I have seen in years. If the competition wasn't so strong, I'd be thinking American Pharoah just might be one of the best horses I've seen in many years. Right now I think my best bets will likely be Frosted (16/1), Mubtaahij (20/1) and Firing Line (12/1), though I think American Pharoah is the best horse and Dortmund will be in the mix, but a poor bet.
Anyway watch the videos and see who had rough trips, went wide thus running farther, and who won easy without being urged. You might find your next Derby winner by looking close. Here's the link:
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.