As we get near starting the 2014 Minnesota racing season, ever wonder who is really the best in Minnesota racing, or what "best" really means. I think "best" should be operationally defined as profitability. For example as a handicapper, I know I have a higher probability of winning by betting on jockeys, trainers and owners who typically generate high average earnings. As an owner, I also know I want to hire jockeys and trainers who have the highest probaility of generating earnings for my stable. Of course, I also want the information to be reasonably credible and consistently predictable.
As both a gambler and horse owner I believe the optimal method for determining effectiveness is to go to public data and calculate the average earnings per start for jockeys, trainers and owners, and I did that for Minnesota participants over the last three years.So who do I think is the best using my criteria?
Of the 50 or so jockeys, 130 trainers and over 600 horse owners who race in Minnesota every year, the top jockey, is Derek Bell. Derek ranked first every year over the last three years and was closely followed by Dean Butler who has ranked 3rd every year over that same time period. Unfortunately, I just heard today that Derek Bell may not be coming to Canterbury this year. The top trainer is clearly Mac Robertson. He, like Derek Bell, has ranked 1st every year for the last three years. Behind Mac, I rank our friend and trainer Gary Scherer (9th, 3rd & 5th over the last 3 yrs) and Bernell Rhone (5th, 9th & 4th over the last 3 yrs). The top owner over the last three years is clearly Camelia Casby who ranked 3rd, 1st & 3rd over the three years respectively.
If you would like to see the complete rankings, here is direct link to our page: Minnesota Rankings
Dave Astar is a race horse owner, stallion owner, breeder, 40 year business executive, and 50 year handicapper.